Prop Bets: Tommy Paul VS Nuno Borges 2025-08-28
Tommy Paul vs. Nuno Borges: A Tale of Two Serves (and Why Borges Should Bring a Towel for the Post-Match Interview)
Tommy Paul, the 14th seed and a man who’s made quarterfinals look like a part-time job this season, faces unseeded Nuno Borges in a match that’s as lopsided as a tennis ball and a watermelon. The odds? Paul is priced between 1.2 and 1.24 (decimal), implying an 83-85% chance to win. Borges, Portugal’s No. 1 but the ATP’s No. 41, is a 4.1-4.64 underdog, or roughly a 18-22% shot. If you’re betting on Borges, you’re essentially wagering that Paul will suddenly develop a fear of hard courts.
The spread? Paul is -5.5 games, meaning he’s expected to win two sets comfortably. The total games line sits at 36.5, with even money on over/under. Given Paul’s recent 6-3, 6-3, 6-1 demolition of Elmer Moller and Borges’s own first-round 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 win, expect a high-octane affair unless Borges turns Flushing Meadows into a chess match.
Borges, ever the optimist, claims he’ll “use his weapons.” Let’s hope his “weapons” include a time machine to play this match in 2015, when Paul was still figuring out how to tie his shoes. Paul, meanwhile, has the consistency of a Roomba on a mission: he’s reached at least the quarterfinals in four of his last five tournaments.
Player Props to Note:
- First Serve Percentage: Bet Paul >65% (he’s averaging 68% this season); Borges’ 62% is a liability.
- Aces: Paul’s over/under is 6.5 (-110); Borges’ is 3.5 (+105). Don’t waste your money on Borges’ aces unless you’re feeling nostalgic for the 1980s.
Prediction: Paul will win in straight sets, likely 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, leaving Borges wondering if the crowd’s cheers for his opponent were a collective “Here comes the sun” or “Here comes the broom to sweep you off the court.” Unless Borges serves 20 aces and invents a new tennis move called The Flushing Floss, Paul’s checkmark is already in the record book.
Final Score Prediction: Paul 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. Borges’ best bet? Praying for a rain delay and a sudden surge in Paul’s double faults. It’s the only way this underdog story ends with a plot twist.
Note: Implied probabilities calculated via decimal odds (1 / decimal_odds). Paul’s 83% chance to win is about the same as me believing Nuno Borges will ever unseeded himself into a Grand Slam final. 🎾💥
Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 2:23 p.m. GMT