Prop Bets: Toronto Blue Jays VS Miami Marlins 2025-08-23
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Miami Marlins: A Statistical Slapfight with a Smile
August 23, 2025 | 8:11 PM ET
The Toronto Blue Jays (-131) are here to flex their .267 team batting average and 4.22 ERA, while the Miami Marlins (+111) will try to avoid becoming the first team to lose 70 games this season. Let’s break it down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a ballpark hot dog vendor.
Why the Jays Should Win
- Jose Berrios (4.00 ERA) takes the mound, a man who’s as reliable as a coffee maker on a Monday morning. Opposing batters have a .238 OBP against him—good for last place in the AL.
- Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are both hitting .298, a duo so consistent they could time-share a batting title. Their "Over 0.5 doubles" prop is -240 and -230, respectively. Buy the farm, they’ll hit the corral.
- Toronto’s offense averages 4.9 runs per game, while Miami’s pitching staff surrenders 4.53. Math lesson: 4.9 > 4.53.
Why the Marlins Might Not
- Janson Junk (4.79 ERA) starts for Miami, a pitcher who’s allowed 1.2 HRs per 9 innings. That’s like a lockbox with a faulty combination.
- The Marlins’ lineup hits just .251, and their "Over 0.5 doubles" prop for Xavier Edwards is +290. Edwards, we need you to do… something.
- Miami’s bullpen has a 4.88 ERA. If this were a movie, it’d be called The Ballad of the Collapsing Closer.
Prop Bets to Steal (or Avoid)
- George Springer: Over 1.5 RBIs (-160). The man has 21 HRs already—he’s not here to make friends.
- Bo Bichette: Over 0.5 doubles (-350). He’s hitting .298 with 82 RBIs. Double or nothing?
- Over 8.5 Total Runs (1.95). With Berrios vs. Junk, this game’s likely to be a statistical fireworks show.
Final Prediction
The Blue Jays win 5-3 in a game that’s less a contest and more of a math problem. Berrios limits the damage, while Bichette and Guerrero Jr. turn the Marlins’ defense into a game of Jenga.
Implied Probability Check:
- Blue Jays: 56.5% (moneyline)
- Marlins: 47.6% (moneyline)
Verdict: Toronto’s a -131 favorite for a reason. Unless Junk turns into a wizard, this is a freebie.
Tip your cap, Marlins fans. It’s a long season. 🧢⚾
Created: Aug. 23, 2025, 2:08 p.m. GMT