Prop Bets: Toronto Blue Jays VS Tampa Bay Rays 2025-09-17
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: A Statistical Slapstick Showdown
The Toronto Blue Jays (-131) are the clear favorites in this matchup, and honestly, it’s not even close. Kevin Gausman, their 34-year-old pitching wizard, has been a one-man shutdown since the All-Star break (2.25 ERA in 10 starts), while Tampa’s Ian Seymour, a three-start rookie, looks like a guy who just found a glove in a thrift store. The Jays’ .269 team batting average (MLB’s best) and 6-game winning streak? That’s not a trend—it’s a telegraphed punchline.
Why the Jays Win:
- Gausman’s dominance: 3.44 ERA overall, 2.25 ERA in his last 10 starts. He’s allowed 2 ER or fewer in 17 of 29 starts this year.
- Rays’ shaky bullpen: 3.68 ERA, which is worse than a college econ final.
- Toronto’s bats: 5.0 runs/game, 68.4% win rate when scoring first.
Implied Probabilities:
- Blue Jays win: ~55.6% (based on -131 odds).
- Over/under: 7.5 runs (Toronto’s offense averages 5.0 RPG; Rays’ pitching allows 4.5 RPG).
Prop Bets to Mock:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Over 1.5 hits (-278). He’s hitting .312 with 30 HRs. Take the over.
- Gausman: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-146). He’s averaging 9.3 Ks per game.
- Rays’ offense: Under 3.5 runs. Their team ERA+ is 92. Sad!
Final Score Prediction: Toronto 5, Tampa Bay 2. The Rays will thank their lucky stars they don’t play Gausman in the playoffs.
Disclaimer: This isn’t a prediction—it’s a statistical inevitability. Unless Tampa’s bench gets a sudden surge of confidence. Or a bear attack. Whichever. 🐻⚾
Created: Sept. 17, 2025, 8:32 p.m. GMT