Prop Bets: Victoria Azarenka VS Jessica Pegula 2025-08-29
Jessica Pegula vs. Victoria Azarenka: A Battle of "Serves and Adjectives"
The US Open’s third-round clash between Jessica Pegula and Victoria Azarenka promises to be a tennis tautology: a match of serves and adjectives. Let’s break it down with the precision of a line judge on Red Bull.
The Numbers, Because Math > Feelings
- Pegula (-4.5 spread, implied probability: ~80% to win straight up) enters as the chalk, per decimal odds of 1.25–1.27 (implied 79–80% win chance).
- Azarenka (+3.7–4.0 odds, implied 25–27% win chance) is the underdog, but don’t sleep on her backhand, which Pegula herself called “probably one of the best in history” (via Sports.ru).
- Total games line: 20.5 (Over: 1.88–1.98, Under: 1.76–1.87). Bet the over if you crave a rally-filled romp; take the under if you’d rather nap.
Why Pegula Might Win
- She’s served up a bagel (6-0 set) in her first-round win and owns a 3-3 career H2H vs. Azarenka, including a 2024 Charleston triumph.
- Pegula’s 2025 hard-court form? A mixed bag (three finals, zero titles on the North American swing). But hey, at least she’s not “not a bagel,” right?
Why Azarenka Might Win
- The Belarusian has won her last two US Open matches (over Inoue and Pavlyuchenkova) and boasts a 6-6 hard-court record in 2025.
- Her backhand could make a Renaissance statue weep. As Pegula warned: “When she’s in form, she’s dangerous.” (Translation: Don’t bet against her if she’s wearing sparkly shoes.)
Player Props to Consider
- Pegula -4.5 (-180 to -205): She’ll need to win by 5 games to cover. Realistic? If Azarenka’s first serve goes on strike.
- Over 20.5 games (1.88–1.98): With both players’ aggressive styles, this feels like the safer prop.
Final Prediction
Pegula’s edge in form and the spread’s -4.5 line suggest she’ll advance, but Azarenka’s backhand could turn this into a late-night snack (for the crowd, not the players—no eating in the stadium, please).
Verdict: Pegula in three sets, 6-4, 6-3. But if Azarenka wins the third set 10-8 in a tiebreak, we’re all in trouble.
Place your bets, but don’t blame me when Azarenka serves your soul into the third row. 🎾
Created: Aug. 29, 2025, 1:10 p.m. GMT