Prop Bets: Washington Commanders VS Miami Dolphins 2025-11-16

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders: A Madrid Meltdown (Week 11 Predictions)

The Miami Dolphins, fresh off their 13-3 season and a 2.5-point favorite (-115 to -122 across books), will face the Washington Commanders in Madrid, where the only thing weaker than the Commanders’ defense is their WiFi signal. With Washington’s starters Jayden Daniels (out), Terry McLaurin (out), and Daron Payne (out), this game is shaping up as Miami’s personal playground. The total is set at 47.5 points (even money in most books), but with Miami’s offense and Washington’s defense (last in NFL in passing yards allowed, 2,602)… let’s just say the over is as safe as a vault in a library.

Key Player Props to Bet Before the Sun Sets in Spain
1. Tua Tagovailoa OVER 238.5 passing yards (-115):
Tua’s got more chances than a baker at a bread convention. Washington’s defense allows 7.9 net yards per pass attempt—perfect for Tua to sling darts, even if he’s thrown 13 interceptions this season.

Jaylen Waddle OVER 75.5 receiving yards (-115):
With Tyreek Hill sidelined, Waddle’s your man. He’s hit 75+ yards 5/6 games… and the Commanders have allowed the most passing yards in the NFL.

De’Von Achane OVER 17.5 rush attempts (-110):
The Commanders are 32nd in yards per play allowed and 24th in EPA/Rush. Miami’s coaching staff will ride Achane like a rodeo star in a rodeo for cows.

Zach Ertz OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-110):
Miami’s tight ends have torched Washington for 714 yards this season. Ertz, the team’s top TE, is getting targeted more than a toddler in a candy store.

Marcus Mariota OVER 33.5 yards on LONGEST completion (-114):
Mariota’s throwing 6.9 YPA, and Miami allows the 3rd-highest passer rating on downfield passes. Look for a Hail Mary or two—preferably not intercepted.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt OVER 32.5 rush yards (-114):
The Commanders are 26th in rushing defense, letting teams average 139.7 YPG. “Bill” might not hit his 6.6 YPC average from earlier, but 33 yards? Easy as tapas in Madrid.

Why Miami Wins
- Washington’s defense: A sieve with a PhD in “How to Let You Score.”
- Miami’s offense: Tua + Waddle + Achane = a three-course meal for a hungrier team.
- Implied probability: Miami’s moneyline (-115) suggests a 53% chance to win… which sounds about right if you’re betting on a team playing in a European city named after a fish.

Final Score Prediction: Miami 31, Washington 17. The Dolphins will stomp their way to victory while the Commanders’ fans sip sangria and wonder why they didn’t bring a better team.

Place your bets, but don’t blame me when Waddle hits 110 yards and Mariota throws a pick-six. The odds are clear: this is a Miami show. 🏀✨

Created: Nov. 16, 2025, 7:58 a.m. GMT