Prop Bets: Washington Nationals VS New York Mets 2025-09-20
"Juan Soto’s HR Prop: A Home Run for the Ages (Or at Least for the Bankroll)"
The New York Mets (-257) host the Washington Nationals (+208) in a September showdown where the stakes are as high as Juan Soto’s exit velocity. The Mets, riding a 48-30 home record, face a Nationals team that’s lost 14 straight by at least two runs. But let’s cut to the chase: this game is Juan Soto’s personal stage.
The Star of the Show: Juan Soto (+295 to Homer)
Soto, who’s mashed 7 HRs in his last 17 games (including two in his last start), is listed at +295 to go yard. That’s a 25.3% implied probability—reasonable for a slugger who’s hit 19 HRs since the All-Star break. Facing a Nationals staff that’s allowed the 27th-most HRs in MLB, Soto’s a one-man wrecking crew. Bet him like he’s not just a player, but a service.
Why Soto?
- Recent form: 7 HRs in 17 games (41% of his season total!).
- Venue: Citi Field’s a HR haven, and Soto’s .989 OPS there this year says it all.
- Pitching matchup: The Nats’ starters? They’ve given up 1.3 HRs per game. Bring it.
Other Props to Note (But Not Waste Your Time On)
- Pete Alonso (-303 to NOT hit 3+ RBIs: Boring. He’s got a .688 OPS on the road. Pass.
- Francisco Lindor’s hits: Over/under 1.5 is a toss-up. Save your cash for Soto.
Final Verdict
The Mets should win, but the real money’s on Soto. If you’re not betting on him to go deep, are you even trying? Grab +295—it’s the only prop here that matters.
And to the Nationals: Enjoy your 8th-inning rally. We’ll be in the bar, celebrating Soto’s 450-foot moonshot. 🍻⚾
Implied probabilities calculated using American odds. No guarantees, but Soto’s got a 401-foot swing.
Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 3:42 p.m. GMT