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Prediction: Marta Kostyuk vs. Zeynep Sonmez – US Open 2025
By The Sportswriter Who Still Thinks Tiebreaks Are Just a Type of Pasta
The Setup:
Marta Kostyuk, Ukraine’s lone hope in this round, is coming off a wrist injury that’s probably still whispering “Don’t let Sonmez take this” in her ear. Zeynep Sonmez, meanwhile, is 19-19 on the season and fresh off a three-match losing streak—so her confidence is about as stable as a Jell-O shot during an earthquake.
Key Stats:
- Kostyuk’s last meeting with Sonmez? A 6-3, 6-3 drubbing in Doha 2023. Sonmez hasn’t forgotten it. Neither has Kostyuk’s wrist.
- Kostyuk’s first-round win: 6-4, 6-4. She missed five match points on serve and faced a 0-40 return game. She’s basically a tennis version of a car that sputters to the finish line.
- Sonmez’s US Open debut? She beat Kate Volynets 6-3, 6-4. But prior to the tournament, she lost three of four matches. Translation: She’s here on a hot streak and a prayer.
Odds Breakdown:
- Kostyuk -1.5 sets @ 1.61 (implied probability: ~62.1%)
Betking’s line assumes Kostyuk will win comfortably. Realistically? She’ll probably win, but the “-1.5 sets” might test the patience of her physical therapist.
Prop Bets to Note:
- First Set Winner: Kostyuk is favored here, but don’t be surprised if Sonmez forces a third set. Her “underdog hustle” could make for a dramatic comeback.
- Total Games Over 21.5: Given Kostyuk’s first-round struggles with serve, this might be a sneaky value on the over.
The Verdict:
Kostyuk’s higher ranking, recent form, and Doha revenge will likely carry her to victory. But if you’re feeling spicy, back Sonmez to take a set. Nothing says “Grand Slam magic” like a 81st-ranked player nearly pulling off an upset while Kostyuk’s wrist twitches nervously in the crowd.
Final Score Prediction: Kostyuk in three sets (6-3, 6-4, 7-5). Or, as her wrist would put it: “I told you so.”
Disclaimer: This prediction is not financial advice. If you bet on Sonmez, you’re either brave or a masochist. We’re not sure which. 🎾
Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 12:18 p.m. GMT