Prop Bets: Yaroslav Amosov VS Neil Magny 2025-12-13
Yaroslav Amosov vs. Neil Magny: A Tale of Two Fighters (and One Very Confident Bookmaker)
The Setup:
Ukrainian phenom Yaroslav Amosov (28-1), the former Bellator king with a résumé that includes submitting Curtis Millender in 2025, makes his UFC debut against veteran Neil Magny (31-13), a 43-fight MMA grizzled vet who’s battled everyone from Robbie Lawler to Kelvin Gastelum. Both fighters weighed in at 77.56 kg—0.46 kg over the welterweight limit, because apparently, even in combat sports, “close enough” is a thing.
The Odds (Implied Probabilities):
- Amosov is a near-lock at decimal odds of 1.18–1.20 (85–83% implied probability).
- Magny, the underdog, floats between 4.50–5.00 (22–20% implied).
- Spreads: Amosov’s -7.5-point line (1.74 odds) suggests bookmakers think he’ll dominate, while Magny’s +7.5 (2.05) is a Hail Mary for gamblers craving an underdog story.
- Totals: Over/Under 2.5 rounds is even money (1.87–1.91), implying a potential early finish.
Key Stats:
- Amosov’s last fight: 1st-round submission. Magny’s last two: 1 KO, 1 submission.
- Amosov’s wrestling pedigree vs. Magny’s 36 UFC fights.
- Amosov’s 28-1 record vs. Magny’s 31-13… but let’s not dwell on that.
Prop Bets to Note:
- Method of Victory: While not explicitly listed, the Over 2.5 rounds line suggests bookmakers expect a finish, likely via Amosov’s grappling or Magny’s (in)famous resilience.
- Round Betting: Implicitly priced into the totals—don’t expect a war of attrition.
The Prediction (With a Side of Humor):
Look, the numbers don’t lie: Amosov is being priced like a Ukrainian MMA version of a sure thing. At 85% implied probability, he’s basically the sportsbook’s idea of a “safe bet,” which is code for “Magny’s chances are about as real as a $50 steak dinner.”
But here’s the twist: Magny’s fought in 43 professional fights. Amosov? Just 29. That’s a 14-fight gap in experience, which is roughly the equivalent of a rookie NBA player facing LeBron James in his prime and thinking, “Hey, I’ve got this.”
Still, Amosov’s Bellator title defense against Douglas Lima in 2021 showed he can handle pressure. Magny’s recent wins over Elizeu Zaleski and Jake Matthews prove he’s not entirely washed up. So what do we have here? A clash of youth (Amosov, 29) and veteran savvy (Magny, 36), with the latter trying to avoid becoming a UFC cautionary tale.
Final Verdict:
Amosov will likely win, probably by submission or early finish. But if you’re feeling wildly optimistic, throw a few bucks on Magny +7.5. After all, in MMA, the only thing more unpredictable than a fight is the guy who says, “I’ll take the underdog.”
And remember: If Amosov loses, the sportsbooks will need to invent new decimal odds just to recover their dignity.
Created: Dec. 13, 2025, 9:30 p.m. GMT