Prop Bets: Yokohama DeNA BayStars VS Hiroshima Toyo Carp 2025-07-17
Trevor Bauer’s Quest to Lose #6: A Comedy of Errors in NPB
Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for what might be the most anticipated failure in NPB history! The Yokohama DeNA BayStars (4-8, 4.17 ERA) send Trevor Bauer to the mound, fresh off a five-game losing streak that’s making his $6 million salary feel like a $6 million albatross. Last time out, he allowed four runs over six innings against the Hiroshima Carp, proving that even former MLB aces can’t buy a win in Japan if it’s nailed shut. His manager, Hirokazu Darvish, admitted Bauer “has made progress,” which is code for “he’s not actively sabotaging the team… yet.”
The odds? Let’s break them down with the mathematical precision of a pitcher who doesn’t throw 95 mph:
- Moneyline: Hiroshima (-150) is the chalk, implying a 60% implied probability to win. Yokohama (+133) offers a 43.5% chance, because why not let fans cling to hope?
- Spreads: Hiroshima -1.5 (+1.5 runs) is the line, with most books pricing it at -150. Yokohama +1.5 is a long shot (+250), like betting your firstborn on a Hail Mary.
- Totals: The Over/Under is 5.5 runs, with the Under slightly favored (1.83-1.91 odds). But with Bauer’s 4.17 ERA and Hiroshima’s .268 batting average, this game might as well be played in a library.
Why Hiroshima Should Win: They’ve beaten Bauer five straight times, including a 4-3 verdict last month. Bauer’s lament, “I think I threw some good pitches, but the results weren’t ideal,” sounds less like a pitcher and more like a metaphor for your Monday morning commute.
Why Yokohama Might Shock Us: Well, they could if Bauer suddenly remembers how to throw a strike. The spread (-1.5) suggests they’re expected to lose by two, which is just one run more than Bauer’s ERA.
Player Props? None listed, but I’ll invent one for fun: Will Bauer’s pregame meal include a apology note from the ghost of Cy Young? Over 3.5 apologies, -200.
Final Prediction: This is a coroner’s report waiting to happen for Bauer’s streak. Take Hiroshima -1.5 unless you enjoy watching a 34-year-old ace slowly realize he’s the anti-Christ in a baseball uniform. And if you do back Yokohama, pray for a mercy rule… or a time machine so Bauer can re-sign with the Mexican League.
Game time: 9 AM ET. Spread: Hiroshima -1.5 (-150). Under 5.5 runs (-110) for the faint of heart.
Note: No actual albatrosses were harmed in the making of this prediction. Probably.
Created: July 17, 2025, 8:56 a.m. GMT