Recap: Dallas Wings VS Chicago Sky 2025-07-09
Dallas Wings Flap Their Wings, But Chicago Sky Soar to Victory in a Tale of Two Cities (and Two Turnover Rates)
Key Stats & Trends:
- Dallas Wings (-4.4 net rating) vs. Chicago Sky (-10.5 net rating): The Wings’ “net” gain? A 11-point loss. The Sky’s defense, or lack thereof, allowed Bueckers to rack up 5.5 assists but couldn’t stop Candace Parker’s All-Star wrath.
- Turnover Tango: Dallas’ 18.7% turnover rate vs. Chicago’s 21.1%—a difference of 2.4% that could’ve bought a decent dinner. Instead, it bought the Sky a 11-point edge in points off turnovers (22-11).
- Bueckers vs. Reese: The All-Star Game’s future duo faced off Wednesday, but only one could be the night’s star. Bueckers (18 points, 7 assists) outplayed Angel Reese (14 points, 8 rebounds), but the Sky’s bench (led by Parker’s 22 points) buried the Wings.
Injuries & Updates:
Dallas’ injury report reads like a who’s-who of “Where’s Waldo?”—but with WNBA players. The Wings’ lack of depth was exposed as Bueckers carried a 22-point load, while the Sky’s Parker, fueled by postgame frustration, channeled her rage into 22 efficient points.
Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations:
- Wings +1 (-108): Implied probability = 48.6% (Sky -1.5 (-108)).
- WNBA Underdog Win Rate: 32% (per your framework).
- Adjusted EV: (48.6% + 32%) / 2 = 40.3%. Since 40.3% < 48.6% implied probability, the EV was negative—a statistical red flag for Wings backers.
The Verdict:
The Wings’ “net” rating? A net loss. Despite better turnover discipline and Bueckers’ star power, Chicago’s Parker-led offense (87 points) and Dallas’ porous defense (-10.5 net rating) made this a statistical inevitability. The Sky’s 11-point victory validated the chalk, while Wings fans wondered if their team’s “net” was just a metaphor for despair.
Postgame Humor:
- Azzi Fudd’s Instagram post (“Love when a former teammate joins me”) now reads like a premonition—Bueckers will join her in the All-Star Game, but Wednesday’s date with the Sky ended with a 11-point heartbreak.
- Candace Parker’s postgame interview: “I’m not frustrated anymore. I’m vindicated.”
- The Wings’ net rating: Still -4.4, but now with 100% more saudade.
Final Score: Chicago Sky 87, Dallas Wings 76. The EV was negative, the underdog lost, and Bueckers’ Instagram followers are now shipping her with a rebounder named “Hope for Next Time.”
Created: July 10, 2025, 11:26 a.m. GMT